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Proof of 2008 Forecast


By David Malone

“The Times helpfully provides a link to Malone's website, BinLaden's, which claims, among other things, that Osama bin Laden wanted George W. Bush to win the 2000 and 2004 elections.  . . .  The site goes on to claim that Mr. Malone “has successfully predicted some of the major events of Bin Laden’s war” and is now trying to warn of efforts by the terrorist network to goad the United States to invade Pakistan and Iran.  . . . Malone called The Daily News three times, speaking in a calm monotone voice about Al Qaeda, what he said was its attempt to influence the American political process and get Republican John McCain elected, and U.S. energy policy.”

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On July 9, 2008, I issued a nationally publicized warning about an imminent Al Qaeda plot to influence the U.S. presidential election with its greatest surge of terrorism against America since the 9/11 attack.  Based on a trends analysis that had accurately predicted the 9/11 plot, I provided the following actionable intelligence about this new plot.  Beginning minutes after this broadcast and continuing in the weeks before the election, Al Qaeda precisely vindicated this warning with a plot to influence the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

In addition to making this forecast explicitly to a New York Daily News interviewer, I emailed and hand-delivered the warning to the New York Times and the New York Police Department.

·        In this typed statement of intent for my “guerrilla press conference” I observed that the leading question facing Americans at that time was: “Why did Bin Laden launch October surprises on the eves of George W. Bush’s two presidential elections that had the effect of swaying tightly contested elections towards Bush’s favor?”  I answered, “To elect an American Commander-in-Chief who would wage a seemingly imperial military crusade in response to Al Qaeda’s planned attacks.”

Most prominently, I plugged on national headline news my published book and website that contained the forewarning.

·        My book Bin Laden’s Plan: The Project for the New Al Qaeda Century (Trafford Publishing, 2005 paperback edition, see pgs. 78-90, 129-136, 146-154, 166-168, 186) examines three trends in Al Qaeda’s terrorist attacks on America, (1) plots to manipulate American presidential contests in favor of hawkish candidates through election-eve terrorism, (2) plots to provoke the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Iran, and (3) a post-9/11 targeting scheme that has focused on gradually escalating attacks on American civilians in the Muslim world within the countries of U.S. allies, while abstaining from attacks on the U.S. homeland.

·        At the time of this national news coverage in July 2008, my website identified Bin Laden’s October-Surprise campaigns against America in 2000 and 2004, including terrorist attacks on Americans overseas and top U.S. allies, as predictive models for Al Qaeda’s 2008 plot to rig the U.S. presidential election in favor of an easily provoked war hawk.

o        Archived (via from the home page: 
“Bin Laden's October surprises in 2000 and 2004 supported Bush's presidential election victories.”

o        Archived (via from the essay “Another Election-Eve Surprise” that was linked from the home page:
“Continuing Al Qaeda's successful hijacking of 21st century American presidential elections, Al Qaeda will intervene on the eve of the 2008 election to sway American voters to elect a candidate who promises to perpetuate the neo-conservative Bush war policy. This intervention could take the form of a major attack on American forces overseas (like the October 2000 bombing of the USS COLE), or another shock-inspiring Bin Laden video that implicitly endorses the Democratic candidate (like in October 2004), or a large-scale terrorist attack on an American ally's homeland (like the October 2004 bombing of an American hotel in U.S.-allied Egypt that targeted Israelis), such as the assassination of the British Prime Minister*.  In all likelihood, Al Qaeda's third attempt to hijack an American presidential election will be novel, shocking, and intended to incite American voters to elect John McCain . . . Helping to craft the image of a modern Roman Empire that menaces humanity, Al Qaeda will then be poised to win the military conflict of its global insurgency on the foundations of a decisive ideological victory.”
– Note: The essay “Another Election-Eve Surprise” was an addendum to the book Bin Laden’s Plan (Trafford, 2005).  The italicized text in this quotation has been added after-the-fact as a contextual explanation for people who have not read the free e-book.

My national guerrilla press conference included public display of this warning’s visual representation, hung from the New York Times headquarters adjacent to the company logo on the front of the building.  Depicting Osama bin Laden holding President Bush by a puppeteer’s wand, this image reflects the Al Qaeda chief’s willful role in rigging the 2000 and 2004 U.S. elections in favor of Bush, and Al Qaeda’s aspiration to rig the 2008 election in favor of Bush’s ideological successor, John McCain.  Al Qaeda’s continuing ambition to influence U.S. foreign policy with October Surprises foreshadows future plots in 2010 and 2012 that will closely follow the predictive model of this trends analysis.


*  Nearly two months after I publicized this prediction about a possible Al Qaeda plot to assassinate the British Prime Minister during the eve of the 2008 U.S. presidential election, such a plot was disclosed by the British Secret Service.

In fulfillment of the 2008 forecast by my trends analysis of major Al Qaeda plots against the United States, this assassination plot appears to have occurred in conjunction with known Al Qaeda plots for large-scale terrorist attacks on American targets overseas (in Yemen, Pakistan and India) during the weeks before the 2008 U.S. presidential election.