9/12/2001-2012, scored by the four-month campaign periods leading up to biennial U.S. national elections.Intensity Scale:
A qualitative measurement gauging the relative influence that a surge of international terrorism exerts in the 9/11 War based on Al Qaeda's ability to terrorize Americans. Criteria include symbolism of target (especially location), radius of attack zone and death toll.Surges:
Red 1 -- New Delhi (December 2001)Overriding Trends:
Red 2 -- Moscow (October 2002), Bali (October 2002), Yemen (October 2002)
Red 3 -- Uzbekistan (July 2004), Beslan (September 2004), Jakarta (September 2004), Egypt (October 2004)
Red 4 -- Atlantic Airlines plot (September 2006)
Red 5 -- Istanbul (July 2008), Sanaa (September 2008), Islamabad (September 2008), Failed Mumbai Massacre (October 2008)
Red 6 -- Mumbai Massacre (November 2008)
Red 7 -- Air Cargo plot (October 2010), Uganda (October 2010), Failed New Delhi plot to assassinate India's military leadership (October 2010)
Red 8 -- Egypt (9/11/12), Libya (9/11/12), Yemen (9/11/12)
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Blue 1 -- Kenya (November 2002)
Blue 2 -- Riyadh (May 2003), Morocco (May 2003)
Blue 3 -- Madrid (March 2004)
Blue 4 -- Jeddah (December 2005)
Blue 5 -- London (July 2005), Egypt (July 2005)
Blue 6 -- Amman (November 2005)
Blue 7 -- Jakarta (July 2009)
Blue 8 -- New York Subway Plot (September 2009), Fort Hood Massacre (November 2009), Detroit Airliner Plot (December 2009), Times Square Plot (March 2010)
Blue 9 -- Stockholm (December 2011)
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Green 1 -- Tunisia (April 2002)
Green 2 -- Mumbai (August 2003)
Green 3 -- Istanbul (November 2003)
Green 4 -- Algiers (December 2007)
Green 5 -- Abuja (August 2011)
Six of the eight major Al Qaeda surges (red bars) since 9/11 correspond to the weeks before U.S. national elections. The two exceptions involved attacks on India by the same Pakistani-based Al Qaeda affiliate that incited military tensions between India and Pakistan, which in turn diverted the Pakistani military away from confronting Al Qaeda's presence in Northwestern Pakistan during critical junctions in the war when the high command's existence was most threatened by the Pakistani military.
Al Qaeda has gradually yet steadily raised the bar for its terrorist surges since 9/11.