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defeating Al Qaeda on the ideological battlefield
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Future Attacks on US



Below is a 5-page extract of the 20-page essay “Future Attacks On America?

See Extract Appendix for a statistical summary of key patterns in Al Qaeda attacks


Al Qaeda’s Next October Surprise

SUMMARY:  A View to the 9/11 Sequel

A trends analysis of Al Qaeda attacks anticipates that the syndicate's leadership plans to launch the next 9/11 inside America:

When?    During the final seven weeks before U.S. national elections in 2012

Where?   New York and Washington, D.C.

How?     A radiological bombing

Who?     Using its Yemen branch

With?      9/11-scale attacks in New Delhi, Tel Aviv or France

Why?     To continue Al Qaeda's tactic of rigging U.S. elections in favor of war hawks by launching its greatest terrorist surges during the final decisive weeks of the campaign.









The terrorism forecast initiative at aims to disseminate actionable intelligence that can help thwart:
  • The next 9/11 operation in New York and Washington,

  • The hijacking of U.S. national elections by Al Qaeda's leadership, and

  • The Al Qaeda plot to provoke America into invading the Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and Iran.
A 12-year trends analysis of Al Qaeda terrorist attacks constitutes the engine for this nonviolent  counterterrorism operation. Following a decade of accurate forecasts, the trends analysis at now projects 9/11-scale plots targeting the capitals of America, Israel and India scheduled to occur before U.S. elections in 2012. 


In late September of 2008, Al Qaeda launched its greatest surge against America since 9/11. Marked by three major strikes on U.S. targets in the Muslim world, this campaign included a plot for the largest terrorist attack in world history. Despite the failures of the Mumbai Massacre perpetrators to execute the operation as planned by killing 5,000 people on October 1st, Al Qaeda's concurrent success at launching "Pakistan's 9/11" and the raid on the U.S. embassy in Yemen distinguished the syndicate's latest October Surprise plot as its most substantial escalation of terrorist attacks on U.S. targets abroad ever. In the context of Osama bin Laden's undeviating habit of launching his greatest surges of international terrorism right before every biennial U.S. national election since 2000, the attacks in late 2008 and the resumption of Al Qaeda attacks on the U.S. homeland in 2009 appear to foreshadow an even greater escalation of Al Qaeda strikes against America during the deciding weeks before the elections in 2012.


Al Qaeda's 2008 surge so precisely followed a cyclical pattern in the syndicate's terrorist attacks on America that David Malone, director of the defense consulting nonprofit, provided accurate forewarning about the timing and locations of these attacks in a nationally publicized announcement. Based on the internet's most extensive analysis of Al Qaeda's October Surprise tactic, the trends analysis at that predicted the plots of 9/11 and the Mumbai Massacre now projects a continuation of this election-rigging pattern in 2012 manifested as an Al Qaeda plot for a 9/11 sequel. This scenario involves:

  • Catastrophic terrorist attacks on financial targets in New York, along with military and government targets in Washington during the seven weeks before U.S. national elections,

  • Executed by Al Qaeda's Yemen branch,

  • Possibly involving radiological weapons,

  • Coupled with similar attacks on New Delhi or Tel Aviv.

The October Surprise will only have the necessary shock value to influence the imminent election if the strikes target the country's premier symbols and appear unmistakably as Al Qaeda-orchestrated, and if no other previous Al Qaeda attacks on America "steal the thunder" from the surprise. Accordingly, the Al Qaeda syndicate will confine the operations to a few critical sites in the above-mentioned cities, including the Bank of America in Times Square, the Pentagon and the Capitol.

Perhaps most importantly, the scheme's "surprise" criteria will restrain Bin Laden's network from launching a 9/11 sequel during any other time frame in order to maximize the shock value. The syndicate's history of October Surprises seems to limit the scope of these Al Qaeda attacks to a 7-week time frame in 2012. This time window for the October Surprise may even shrink to a one-week period in 2012. In light of Al Qaeda's failed plots to influence U.S. elections with 9/11-scale attacks on U.S. targets in August 2006 and September 2008, and in the backdrop of its past successes in October 2000, October 2002, October 2004 and October 2010, the high command may make a concerted effort to launch the psychological operation as close to voting day as possible in order to maximize its impact on the election. If Al Qaeda's leadership can successfully direct its operatives to not launch the attacks prematurely, the timing of the strikes may well be limited now to the week before the elections.


Note:  See Appendix for a graphical analysis of Al Qaeda attacks demonstrating that the terrorist syndicate has:

  1. Launched its greatest surges during the deciding weeks before biennial U.S. national elections, and

  2. Gradually escalated the intensity of these October Surprises.

Three Overriding Patterns in Al Qaeda Attacks: 
October Surprises, Messiah Pretension and Gradually Escalating Provocations

From 2000-2010, Al Qaeda consistently attempted to magnify the issue of terrorism in the political arena and sway U.S. elections by launching its most stunning surges of terrorist attacks in the midst of campaign season.
October 2000:                 USS COLE bombing, Failed attempt to launch 9/11 attack

October 2002:                 Bali, Moscow, Aden port

July - October 2004:       Tashkent, Beslan, Jakarta, Egyptian resort

August 2006:                  Atlantic airlines plot

July - October 2008:       Istanbul, Sanaa, Islamabad, Mumbai Massacre plot

October 2010:                 Air cargo plot
Echoing the syndicate's past efforts to  rig presidential elections in favor of George Bush and John McCain, Al Qaeda's future October Surprises will represent psychological operations to influence Election Day by effecting a short-term political shift in U.S. voter sentiment towards war hawks. Such an event could boost the already favorable prospect for congressional victory enjoyed by Republicans due to widespread concerns about the incumbent party's economic policy. A dramatic Republican takeover of Obama's Democratic congress in 2010 based on a popular mandate for national security and economic reform has frozen the remainder of his presidency with political gridlock over the dovish war policy of the Democrats and sabotaged his reelection bid in 2012. As with the USS COLE bombing and 9/11, Al Qaeda's leadership will aim to empower and incite fringe American military imperialists in order to portray the superpower as the aggressor in the long-running conflict with Bin Laden. This machination would help mask Al Qaeda's belligerent initiatives and cause the world to blame the United States for the ensuing conflict. 

Bin Laden's Machiavellian insurgent strategy exists to advance his apocalyptic cult's overarching purpose, imitating the mythological account of the Apocalypse War between the "Great Satan Empire" and the Muslim Messiah named "the Mahdi"*. As a facilitator for this bid to trigger covertly a climactic worldwide battle, the syndicate's effort to sway the U.S. vote will likely include a sub-plot to provoke directly yet another escalation of the 9/11 War that imitates apocalyptic prophecy about December 2012. This Doomsday Scenario involves the climax of the world war on battlefields in Afghanistan, Iraq, North-Western Pakistan, Iran, Israel and the Arabian Peninsula. The rising emphasis of Al Qaeda's Yemen branch in the syndicate's renewed campaign against the U.S. homeland suggests that the high command has committed itself to luring America into a war in the lower Arabian Peninsula, perhaps in conjunction with inflaming a conflict between Israel and Iran.  By perpetrating this villainous plot, Bin Laden hopes to fool the world into believing that his war is the prophesized Apocalypse War and he is the awaited "paragon of humanity" called "the Mahdi".

Beyond simply duping America into playing the role of the "Great Satan Empire" who battles the Mahdi, Bin Laden's nefarious strategy requires that he also dupe the world into perceiving his war effort as a righteous action designed to protect the Muslim world from the "real" aggressor. Although large-scale U.S. military aggression throughout the Muslim world advances this vision, Al Qaeda's attacks must appear to be just as defensive as America's operations appear offensive.  During both the pre-9/11 and post-9/11 phases of Al Qaeda's war against the United States, the syndicate's leadership has designed virtually all of its major terrorist strikes to demonstrate a pattern of gradually increasing provocation characteristic of a defensive insurgency battling an intractable foe.  By starting Bin Laden's war with attacks against the "infidel occupiers" inside Islamist war zones, and only later attacking the "infidel" homes after U.S. military “aggression” expanded further, this purposefully designed war narrative has portrayed the United States coalition as the "Great Satan" provocateur of the war that spreads worldwide, and Al Qaeda as the just defender of Muslims from unyielding "infidel" aggression. This model for time-scaled provocations represents a crucial part of Bin Laden's strategy to mask the apocalyptic cult that is Al Qaeda's leadership as a righteous popular insurgency.  Based on this cunning calculation, the Al Qaeda syndicate has proceeded through four distinct stages of slowly escalating terrorism against America during the nine years of the global 9/11 War.

9/12/2001 – April 2003:                 No attacks on U.S.

May 2003 – July 2006:                   Limited attacks on U.S. in Muslim world

August 2006 – November 2008:     9/11-scale attacks on U.S. in Muslim world

September 2009 – Present Day:     Attacks on the U.S. homeland
The geographical target of Al Qaeda's attacks has slowly but surely shifted from abroad, and the syndicate now appears poised to launch a 9/11 sequel on the U.S. homeland. In another demonstration of its strategy for politically coddling U.S. war hawks and gradually escalating terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda's resumption of homeland attacks only after Obama took office appears to confirm the existence of this plot for an imminent 9/11.

Synthesizing A Forecast

As a first step to expanding the 9/11 War, Al Qaeda will aim to discredit President Obama on national security by launching a trademark sequel to 9/11 that targets the same two capitals of American finance and politics. This October Surprise would likely have a multiplier effect that compounds the negative influence of widespread economic concerns on the dovish incumbent party's popular support.  Such a dramatic exhibition of America's insecurity must be sufficiently catastrophic both to influence the imminent election and to incite American military reprisals against Yemen and Pakistan. 

On the other hand, these operations in the U.S. homeland cannot appear so overtly provocative as to recast Al Qaeda as the chief villain behind the 9/11 War in the eyes of the Muslim world. While conspicuously avoiding use of any biological or nuclear weapons of mass destruction, the network's leadership may well employ chemical or radiological weapons of mass disruption as the next stage in its slowly mounting campaign of attacks against America. Bin Laden's careful attempts to portray righteous reciprocity for American "attacks" on Muslims could lead the syndicate to embrace overtly the use of sarin gas or a dirty bomb, in view of the recent use by America and Israel of banned chemical and radiological weapons (like mortar rounds of white phosphorus or tons of aerosolized depleted uranium).

Despite the syndicate's hesitancy to deploy nuclear weapons in a first-strike capacity, a role it reserves to the "Great Satan Empire", Bin Laden's inner circle is not reluctant to dabble in nuclear brinksmanship. The syndicate demonstrated this nuclear penchant in the 2008 plots for Pakistan's 9/11 and India's 9/11 that nearly led to war between the world's most unstable nuclear rivals, a false-flag scheme that Al Qaeda perpetrated to greater effect in the December 2001 commando raid on Indian parliament. Even 9/11 itself bore the hallmarks of nuclear brinkmanship as a humbling attack on the nuclear superpower that would quickly lead America into a war inside the lone Islamic nuclear power, Pakistan. In each case, the Al Qaeda network was willing to goad its enemies into starting a nuclear war in order to appear to embrace the moral high ground.

In a bid to complete the 2012 chess board and augment the psychological manipulation of U.S. voters, Al Qaeda's Yemen and Pakistani affiliates may launch election-eve attacks on the capitals of India and Israel along with America.  Collectively, these plots will represent the logical continuation of Al Qaeda's relentless quest to incite the Apocalypse War and portray Bin Laden as the Muslim Messiah through the contrivances of October Surprises and time-scaled terrorism.

Recent Bellwethers

These projections for 2012 appear to have been validated by  recent developments in Al Qaeda's global terrorism campaign.

Echoes Of Pre-9/11 Intelligence Chatter:
Reminiscent of former National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice's testimony to the 9/11 Commission that “the intelligence indicated that the attacks would happen overseas”, in October 2010 Al Qaeda  flooded the intelligence air waves with warnings about a “Mumbai-Massacre-style” plot against Americans in Europe. Exactly one year after Al Qaeda resumed  terrorist attacks inside the U.S. homeland as part of a gradually escalating prelude to the next 9/11, the high command now appears bent on goading America into diverting counterterrorism resources from the homeland to prevent a 9/11-scale plot overseas.

Reminiscent of Osama bin Laden's video message of June 2001 that was released two weeks before the scheduled launch date for the 9/11 attack in early July 2001, in October 2010 Bin Laden released an audio message containing unusually precise threats about an imminent plot against America.

Known Plots By Al Qaeda:

Two terrorist conspiracies have been publicized that are scheduled to occur in October 2010, involving (1) A Pakistani affiliate targeting New Delhi, and (2) The Yemen affiliate targeting Washington D.C..

A “Dramatic Propaganda Shift” by Al Qaeda (AP, 10/18/10):

After eight years of avoiding attacks on the U.S. homeland, the Al Qaeda high command resumed these strikes in 2009. The first concrete plots by Al Qaeda to hit America at home were followed in October 2010 with the syndicate's first concerted propaganda campaign to incite American Muslims to attack the homeland, an initiative enshrined in the publication of Al Qaeda's first english-language magazine (authored by its Yemen affiliate).  Al Qaeda's leadership has officially opened the floodgates for attacks inside the United States.

In the context of past attempts by Al Qaeda to rig U.S. national elections using “October Surprise” psychological operations, the content of the syndicate's communications in October 2010 may well auger the next 9/11.  

A fundamental objective of our campaign at is to foster public awareness about Al Qaeda’s future terrorist plots, particularly its psychological operations to rig U.S. elections. Unbeknownst to many, the Al Qaeda virus has long exploited a vulnerability to foreign influence in U.S. national elections that continues to allow the malicious entity to hijack American democracy, foment hatred of the superpower and rally support for Bin Laden's global insurgency. Our efforts at to expose his war plan involve disseminating actionable intelligence that can thwart Al Qaeda's October Surprises, in part by informing the American electorate of this ongoing attempt at voter manipulation. Beyond dampening the political backlash to Al Qaeda's election-eve psychological operations, we aim to prevent the actual terrorist attacks by alerting the American public and Muslim world about the timing and locations of these strikes.   Through this avenue, we aim to help prevent the next 9/11, secure U.S. elections from Al Qaeda interference, and expose the syndicate’s overarching bids to provoke U.S. invasions of the Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan, and Iran.

America's greatest boon to Bin Laden's apocalyptic cult occurred when the Bush Administration unwittingly imitated apocalyptic mythology about the “Great Satan Empire” by invading three of the six countries prophesized to be the major battle zones of the Apocalypse War.  Today, active battle zones for Bin Laden's global war against America and Israel are ready to erupt in Afghanistan, North-West Pakistan, Iraq, as well as Israel and the Palestinian territories.  Only two geographical regions remain to complete the vivification of Apocalypse mythology that is Bin Laden's overarching ambition.  In addition to coaxing the expansion of the current U.S. military campaign in North-West Pakistan, Al Qaeda's leadership appears determined to provoke U.S.-backed invasions of Yemen and Iran.  Preventing this scenario will be essential to thwarting Bin Laden's bid to kill four billion people by imitating popular apocalyptic mythology and inciting a worldwide nuclear holocaust. Americans can most immediately oppose this genocidal plot by spreading an awareness of Bin Laden's plan that prevents his apocalyptic cult from controlling the outcome of U.S. national elections. Such exposure of Al Qaeda's secret war plans could, in turn, help convince the Muslim world that foiling these apocalyptic machinations is the main duty of all able individuals, regardless of religious denomination.  In the context of this information operation, America can employ the patterns analysis at as both a defensive tool to prevent Al Qaeda attacks and an offensive weapon to destroy the syndicate's ideological base.


 * See Appendix for statistical data on Al Qaeda trends, including the Messiah pretension, October Surprise surges and gradually escalating terrorism evident in charts of Al Qaeda's post-9/11 terrorist attacks.

A graph charting Al Qaeda's 15 terrorist surges since 9/11.

Time Scale:
9/12/2001-2010, scored by the four-month campaign periods leading up to biennial U.S. national elections. 
Intensity Scale:  
A qualitative measurement of the relative influence an Al Qaeda terrorist surge exerts in the 9/11 War based on its ability to terrorize Americans.  Criteria include symbolism of target (especially location), radius of attack zone and death toll.
Red 1 (New Delhi), Red 2 (Moscow, Bali, Aden), Red 3 (Tashkent, Beslan, Jakarta, Taba), Red 4 (Atlantic Airlines plot), Red 5 (Istanbul, Sanaa, Islamabad, Mumbai), Red 6 (Air cargo plot); Blue 1 (Riyadh, Morocco), Blue 2 (Madrid), Blue 3 (Jeddah), Blue 4 (London), Blue 5 (Amman), Blue 6 (New York Subway Plot, Fort Hood Massacre, Detroit Airliner Plot, Times Square Plot); Green 1 (Djerba), Green 2 (Mumbai), Green 3 (Istanbul)
For more details, see Appendix.